June 2022
Point Topic have produced global fixed broadband take-up forecasts by technology. The latest research provides a dataset which features current and historical data as well as forecasts of broadband take-up by DSL, FTTH/P/B, FTTC/VDSL, Cable and other technologies (mostly WiMAX, other wireless and satellite) for the period between Q4 2021 and Q4 2030.
The forecasts, which include data for the top 30 fixed broadband markets[1] and Rest of the World (ROW), are part of our Global Broadband Statistics (GBS) service. They are based on Point Topic’s extensive historical data on fixed broadband take up, the trends in subscriber churn for various broadband technologies, the size of the addressable market at country level, and current and planned network upgrades.
Our forecasts predict that at the end of 2030 there will be 1.6 billion fixed broadband subscribers worldwide compared to 1.27 billion in Q4 2021, up by 26%. Some 88 per cent of the fixed broadband subscribers will be in the top 30 broadband markets, ranked as such by the subscriber numbers recorded in Q4 2021.
We predict that by end-2030 some variant of fibre (FTTH/P/B) will be used by 75% of fixed broadband subscribers globally, compared to 62% in Q4 2021. In the same period, the share of DSL (ADSL) based subscriptions will drop from 10% to 4%, the share of cable – from 17.5% to 10%, while the shares of FTTC/VDSL based connections and of other technologies will remain largely stable at just above 8% and 2% respectively.
As illustrated by Point Topic’s actual broadband subscriber figures, legacy copper networks have been losing customers to more advanced technologies for years. Between now and 2030, direct fibre networks will continue attracting the majority of new customers, with DSL figures forecast to drop to hundreds or tens of thousands in most technologically advanced markets.
China will remain the largest fibre broadband market in 2030, with projected 523m subscribers. We believe that India will come second, with the United States third. Japan, the UK and France are also in the top ten list, which is dominated by the developing markets.
Spain and United Kingdom are forecast to reach the highest fibre penetration among households in 2030 due to their ambitious fibre rollout projects. The fast developing markets of Vietnam, Chile and Indonesia as well as already well established fibre markets of China, Japan, Sweden, France and Korea are also in the top ten league by forecast fibre penetration.
While direct fibre growth will dominate this decade, one cannot completely discount FTTC/VDSL and cable platforms, preferred by some operators, and especially their more advanced versions such as Docsis 3.1. We have seen them going strong in some markets, though we predict the overall trend of decline in the numbers of subscribers using these technologies at the expense of direct fibre.
In terms of household penetration, fibre will be used by more than half of all global households, while overall fixed broadband penetration will be 70%.
The launch of superfast 5G services has already affected fixed broadband take-up around the globe and will lead to some operators and countries losing fixed broadband subscribers by 2030.
[1] Excluding Ukraine and Russia, due to the uncertainty of the consequences of their ongoing military conflict. They are included in ROW.
The complete forecast dataset is available to our GBS subscribers. Please get in touch if you are interested in subscribing to the service: isabelle.anderson@point-topic.com