Research Round-up December 2023
- Veronica Speiser
- Jan 9, 2024
- 4 min read
Digital Deprivation in the UK: 2023 Report and Dataset; Broadband Forecasts: 2023 Q3 update; UK Broadband Market Continues to See Declining Volumes: Analysis of Q3 2023 UK ISP metrics; BDUK Project Gigabit updates; UK telecoms sector news; government and Ofcom updates
Key publication of the month:
Broadband Forecasts – 2023 Q3 update
Summary
Thinkpoint (a joint product from Point Topic and thinkbroadband, that includes all postcode outputs for availability, operators and ISPs by postcode and technology and take-up and forecasting) updated our broadband forecasts, including new methodologies for postcode level in the UK.
They fall into two categories. Premises passed, how many home plus business premises a deployer/operator has ready and lit for service; and Operator/ISP footprints which track where we expect each of them to deploy to next by postcode.
Premises passed
With (as of writing) almost 60% of the UK with at least one FTTP option and almost 80% with gigabit access available the frantic last few years have meant significant changes to the UKs coverage with more to come.
The pace of that change and how it relates to the targets that the companies and indeed government have announced is where we produce one set of our forecasts.
Compound outputs
One view is to sum all the operators present in a postcode to give a general measure of what is expected locally.
Previous models naturally predict multiple operators present in a postcode. There were instances with postcodes with up to 6 operators. This latest version has postcodes with up to 10 operators present in a postcode.
While this may seem unrealistic and is not sustainable in reality, it is a consequence of the number of companies deploying in the UK and the updates to the models reflecting early (relative) avoidance of overbuild.
Overall, the UK is heading for 30 million plus premises with one or more gigabit suppliers before the end of the decade. Real pressure on operators will kick in from 2027 as we see more and more instances where there are more than 4 operators projected in a postcode.
Operator footprints – postcode predictions
This category of forecasts uses several variables to arrive at a score that rates each postcode according to how ‘attractive’ it is to a particular operator.
In order to understand where and when an operator will deploy we use the following:
This builds an ‘attractiveness’ score for each UK postcode for each operator in the analysis. The last two elements make this score unique for each operator.
We also use external sources, for example the roadworks databases, to check if an operator has made an application or plans to dig in an area. The model output provides an individual operator forecast and can be aggregated to provide a compound forecast that counts the number of operators present in a postcode at time in 6 month increments to 2030.
Individual operator footprints
This approach allows us to publish expected postcodes for each operator. Subject to the limitations of our input data we can review each operator over time.
The image below represents our forecasted gigabit capable full fibre footprint by 2030 for rural ISP, Gigaclear. For the complete time series animation of Gigaclear’s actual and predicted FTTP footprint between 2020 to 2030 see here.
We can also review how they interact and where there will be less or more competition.
This version of the model forecasts that Gigaclear will face the following competition at the end of 2026, by postcode count.
Similar outputs can be generated for each operator as well as sub setting the lists to review which combination of Operators will be where. For example Gigaclear will face Zzoomm in 537 postcodes by the end of 2026.
Read the complete article in our free analysis here. This is an update to our forecasts from December 2022 - these will now be updated quarterly. If you are currently a subscriber contact us for details and deliverables.
Full data outputs are available to Thinkpoint subscribers. See the product page for more details.
Building Digital UK (BDUK) Project Gigabit progress update, December 2023
BDUK published its quarterly progress update report on 15 December and the key points can be found below.
Key points
16 procurement contracts in place representing £2bn investment with aim of reaching 1.1m hard to reach premises with gigabit capable broadband.
Since September 2023, signed four regional and local contracts including in North East Staffordshire, North Oxfordshire, South Oxfordshire and Derbyshire; representing £76m in investment aiming to cover 33k premises.
Added potential Project Gigabit procurements in Scotland and Northern Ireland to the procurement pipeline which will cover up to 160k premises.
Published three evaluation and research reports looking at the impacts, costs and benefits of our legacy programmes; published its first Annual Report and Accounts on 21 November.
BDUK’s performance report stated that 146k (90%) of premises passed in 2022-2023 were in ‘rural areas, with 61% (99,300) of premises covered by subsidies only had previous access to sub-superfast connections.
Across Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, 68,100 premises gained access to gigabit capable connectivity through publicly-funded delivery.
More than 108k Gigabit Vouchers have been awarded to fund gigabit capable connections.
The growth of gigabit capable broadband coverage across government regions and the devolved nations since August 2021 can be found below.
Key December telecoms sector news
BT Group News
1 December – Openreach launched SOTAP002/23. The SOTAP product has been developed to enable PSTN withdrawal. ACCN OR876 had been issued and SOTAP charges can be found here.
SOTAP allows the following order journeys:
· New line provide
· Start of a stopped line
· Migrations from other copper products
6 December – Openreach announced it had completed its four-year project in partnership with the Welsh Government (and building on its Superfast Cymru programme) to rollout full fibre to 44k premises across Wales, which was higher than the originally planned 39k premises. The rollout, which has reportedly come in under its original budget of £57m, was thanks to Welsh Government and EU funding, investment from Openreach and support from the UK Government.
7 December – Openreach hits halfway point in UK broadband upgrade plan, with its full fibre network covering 12.5m premises; Footprint includes more than 20k medical facilities and care homes; 18k educational buildings; and more than 3.6m homes in rural areas. Openreach also published plans another 142 build locations - covering around 1.4m premises, including in some of the hardest to reach, most rural communities in the UK.
7 December – 167k more Scottish homes and businesses added to Openreach’s full fibre plans, as Openreach announced further £50 million investment across 25 new locations in Scotland.
8 December – BT Group announced live TV technology breakthrough to meet growing customer demand. Multicast-Assisted Unicast Delivery (MAUD) technology is aimed at improving viewer experiences and increasing the efficiency of the complex journey that content takes to reach them. Major broadcasters, including the BBC, will be involved in evaluating and potentially trialling the technology to support a range of live content.
Unlike traditional ‘unicast’ delivery, where each viewer watches the action via a dedicated, personal internet stream, MAUD technology uses 'multicast' to group those single streams into one shared one, directing it to those that want to watch the action. MAUD has a further significant advantage over 'ordinary' multicast streams, as its integration is made completely transparent to the player application. This means content service providers don't need to modify their customer apps to take advantage of this technology - saving time and money.
11 & 18 December – Openreach announced prices changes from April 2024 on its following products for communications providers:
· WLR Wholesale Calling and Network Features, WLR
· TRC
· SOGEA, GEA-FTTP (including FVA and FOD), GEA-FTTC, GEA Cablelink
· SOTAP
· ISDN
· Ethernet
· Cablelink and Accommodation Services
· ECC
· LLU MPF, LLU SMPF, LLU Plan and Build
· LLU and Access Locate Power Price Update 2024/25
· Dark Fibre price changes 2024-25
· OSA and OSEA price changes and product withdrawals from April 2024
12 December – Originally announced back in 2018, BT confirmed that from January 2024, 3G technology will start being retired across its EE mobile network. The use of 3G across its network continues to fall to record low levels; responsible for less than 0.4% of all downloaded data. According to Ofcom, EE customers only spend 2.7% of their time connected to 3G, which is the lowest amount of time of any UK mobile operator.
20 December – GEN088/23 Delay to Openreach changes in support of One Touch Switch.
21 December – BT stated that 2023 had been a year of records for the operator as it managed more record peaks in network traffic (30.1 Tbps being the latest), a record 200m devices now connect to its network every day, EE’s 5G network covered more than 70% of the UK population with its 4G network being strengthened in 1,500 more rural communities.
Virgin Media O2 (VMO2) News
5 December – Virgin Media O2 small cell trial brings faster 4G to Skegness.
5 December – VMO2, delivering on behalf of nexfibre, announced it had passed 9k premises in North Yorkshire towns Skipton and Glusburn, with FTTP delivering speeds of up to 1,130 Mbps.
7 December – VMO2 announced it is contacting all 5 million broadband, TV and landline customers about its social tariffs through clear information in customers’ monthly bills each month. The operator is also urging Government to cut VAT on social tariffs and update its digital inclusion strategy which was published in 2014
13 December – VMO2, delivering on behalf of nexfibre, announced it had passed 19k premises in Brentwood (Essex), with FTTP delivering speeds of up to 1,130 Mbps.
18 December – Virgin Media O2 revealed UK connectivity trends for 2023 with broadband usage on its fixed line network increased by 13% in 2023 (up from 9% last year). Similarly, the mobile traffic and data increased by 26% in 2023 (down from 36% last year). The use of streaming apps such as BBC iPlayer, Netflix, Prime Video and Disney+ rose by 3% compared to last year. In total, 90% of customers engaged with and watched apps on their set top box in 2023. BBC iPlayer remains the most popular app for Virgin Media TV customers, with 72% engaging with the platform followed by Netflix (52%) and YouTube (50%).
In terms of mobile connectivity, it stated that it’s 5G network covered 30,000 further rural areas and has improved its 4G network to boost capacity in more than 34,245 postcodes across the countryside.
CityFibre (CF) News
4 December – CityFibre confirmed to ISPReview that, following an “ongoing review of prioritisation of our deployment locations“, they have taken the decision to pause their £40m project to deploy a new gigabit capable FTTP broadband ISP network across the Wiltshire town of Swindon.
7 December – CityFibre and Newark and Sherwood District Council have signed a wayleave agreement providing permission for the required groundworks and installations to be completed to cover more than 500 households in the area.
14 December – CF announced that it has completed its primary build in Southend-on-Sea (Essex). The new network is now 'ready for service’ to over 70k homes, about 90% of the city’s residential properties, as well as most businesses, key public sector and community sites.
Construction began on the £51m project in July 2019 and CityFibre has since laid almost 1,000km of dense full fibre infrastructure across the city. While the primary-build is now completed, CityFibre will continue to explore opportunities to reach further areas including new build properties, those on private or unadopted roads and business parks.
16 December – CF confirmed to ISPReview that its FTTP network had passed 3.37m premises with 3m ‘ready for service’.
19 December – CF announced that it has completed its primary build in Lowestoft (Suffolk). The new network is now 'ready for service’ to over 30k premises.
Construction began on the over £15m project in 2020 and the build plan was expanded during the rollout to include the surrounding areas of Carlton Colville, Normanston and Gunton. While the primary-build is now completed, CityFibre will continue to explore opportunities to reach more sites including new build properties, multi-dwelling units, homes on private or unadopted roads and business parks.
Independent Operators (AltNets) News
1 December – MS3’s FTTP network goes live in Mexborough (South Yorkshire), it’s initial build started in the summer of 2023 and will cover around 9k premises in the town by the close of the year.
1 December – Octopus Energy announced it had officially acquired Shell Energy Retail in the UK and Germany.
This means Octopus Energy will soon be home to all of Shell Energy's 1.3m home energy customers in the UK and Germany. However, it’s broadband customer segment still raises questions. Contained in the announcement’s FAQ’s, it states, ‘Shell Energy will keep looking after you as normal, and nothing will change for now.
Your broadband and phone service will continue exactly as it is now, with no interruptions. If anything changes in the future, we’ll get in touch again with all the information you need.’
On 14 December, it was reported that TalkTalk was to acquire Shell Energy’s broadband customer base.
6 December – Quickline, announced a further 5 North Yorkshire villages to rollout plans: Hebden, Barden, Burnsall and Hetton covering 800 premises; 8 December completed building its FTTP network in the Lincolnshire communities of Tealby, North Willingham and Metheringham, covering more than 1,700 properties; 14 December full fibre network builds have gone live in Osgodby and Barlby in North Yorkshire and Northorpe and Knaith Park in Lincolnshire, rolling out a gigabit capable full fibre network to more than 3,000 properties; 21 December FTTP networks in Lincolnshire hamlets of North Elkington, South Elkington and Acthorpe as well as Eggborough in North Yorkshire covering 2,500 premises goes live.
9 December – B4RN extends FTTP to 25,000 rural UK premises.
11 December – Business telecoms provider, Global4 announced acquisition of ISP Gemini. Geographically located to deliver exceptional service across Cumbria, Dumfries and Galloway this exciting development is set to enhance Global4’s market presence whilst significantly broadening its offerings.
12 December – Fibrus pulls out of north east Project Gigabit broadband rollout.
12 December – Managed internet service provider, Wifinity, has been awarded a 10-year contract to provide WiFi and internet services across Anchor Hanover Group’s entire portfolio of nearly 1,700 locations. A first for the later living sector, this rollout is set to be one of the largest backhaul and hardware deployments in the country. As England’s largest provider of specialist housing and care for people in later life, Anchor is investing in its digital infrastructure and connectivity as part of it Connected Properties programme.
15 December – Rural ISP, Gigaclear, secured new debt facility investment of up to £1.5bn. The new debt facility is split between an upfront facility of c.£1bn and an uncommitted accordion of c.£500m. The facility is provided by a consortium of banks comprising ABN AMRO, Credit Industriel et Commercial, HSBC, Kommunalkredit, LBBW, Lloyds, NatWest, NAB, NIBC, and SEB. The UK Infrastructure Bank provided its guarantee product covering £240m of commitments. The facility will be used to accelerate the telecom company’s long-term plans to provide service to more than a million rural premises by 2027.
15 December – Connect Fibre win Derbyshire (Lot 3) Project Gigabit contract, being awarded £33m in subsidies to cover c.17k premises.
19 December – Wessex Internet, announced that it has begun construction of its £14m Project Gigabit contract (covering 10,500 premises) in the New Forest with construction teams now installing the first fibre cables across to Martin, which will act as one of the springboards into the New Forest.
Work has also started in Whitsbury, a village near Fordingbridge. Whitsbury, along with Martin, Damerham and Rockbourne will be some of the first communities to be connected to Wessex Internet’s full fibre broadband network in the New Forest, in 2024.
21 December – Freedom Fibre Limited and InfraBridge-backed VX Fiber announced they have signed an agreement to combine their businesses, with InfraBridge controlling the combined entity following the close of the transaction.
The new business will have a combined footprint of 285,000 and operate as Freedom Fibre Limited, run by Neil McArthur (Freedom Fibre founder and CEO) and the current FFL senior leadership team.
21 December – GoFibre finish Phase 1 of Project Gigabit build in Rural Northumberland covering 1,100 hard to reach premises.
22 December – Zzoomm announced it had reached the 20,000th customer milestone, with its network covering 185k premises.
Other News
8 December –Vodafone UK confirms start of IPv6 rollout.
11 December – ISP TalkTalk warn of uncertain future as UK broadband users fall.
13 December – Change to planned One Touch Switch go-live date of 14 March 2024 announced by TOTSCO.
14 December – UK Government confirms Scotland is to be allocated £450m for Gigabit broadband.
18 December – The DSIT published its Policy Paper, The Public Switched Telephone Network charter, which sets out a voluntary agreement between the government and communication providers to protect vulnerable people when they are moved onto digital services.
19 December – Ofcom, published its Connected Nations 2023 report: Full fibre broadband is now available at more than half of UK residential premises (57%), sharply up from 42% last year. Gigabit capable broadband coverage levels now exceed three-quarters (78%) of UK residential premises, up from 70% last year. FTTP take-up: 1.7 million new full fibre consumer connections in the year to May 2023, out of a total of 4.6 million full fibre connections.
The level of 5G coverage provided outside of premises by at least one mobile network operator (MNO) rose from 67-78% in 2022 (across a range covering Very High and High Confidence levels of availability) to 85-93% in 2023. As of September 2023, there were more than 18,500 5G deployments in place across around 81,000 sites in the UK, up from around 12,000 5G deployments reported in 2022.
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