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  • Writer's pictureJolanta Stanke

Global fixed broadband subscribers forecast to grow by 15% to 1.6 billion by 2030

We have updated our forecasts of fixed broadband take-up for 104 markets to the end of 2030. The forecasts are based on our quarterly fixed broadband subscriber data up to Q2 2023 and include both residential and business connections.


We forecast that by the end of 2030 there will be more than 1.618 billion fixed broadband subscribers across the globe (Figure 1). This is a slight increase from 1.595 billion we predicted in our forecast published in March 2023. Between mid-2023 and end-2030, global fixed broadband subscribers will grow by 14.9%.


The highest growth in fixed broadband subscribers (36.8%) will come from the Emerging markets, where broadband services were introduced earlier than in the Youthful markets but there is still plenty of room to increase take-up (Figure 2) [1]. A number of countries in the Emerging category have been expanding fixed broadband infrastructure, especially focusing on fibre. The demand for ultrafast broadband has been increasing at healthy rates in these generally large and growing populations and economies, with Indonesia and The Philippines just a couple of examples. Youthful countries will see the second highest growth rate at 11.8%. Here fixed broadband take-up has already grown at high speed and so they will see growth rates slow down. To date, the growth curve of Youthful markets has been the steepest, with the likes of China having invested heavily in their broadband infrastructure over the last decade[2].  


Table 1 . Predicted growth in fixed broadband subscribers by market type. Source: Point Topic.

Market type

Predicted growth, 2023-2030

Emerging Countries

36.8%

Youthful Countries

11.8%

Mature Countries

6.9%

The growth in mature countries will be the slowest (6.9%) and it will flatline as fixed broadband penetration there is already high and population growth is slowing down. In fact, we forecast that the total fixed broadband subscriber figure in the Emerging markets will almost match that in Mature markets by the end of the decade.


At the regional level, the advanced, mature economies of Western Europe will see the slowest growth, at 4.9%. On the other hand, fixed broadband take-up in the Middle East & Africa and in Latin America will grow at significant rates (39.4% and 27.5% respectively) (Table 2).

 

Table 2. Predicted growth in fixed broadband subscribers by region. Source: Point Topic.

Region

Predicted growth, 2023-2030

Middle East and Africa

39.4%

Latin America

27.5%

Asia-Pacific

18.2%

Eastern Europe

10.8%

North America

9.3%

South and East Asia

9.2%

Western Europe

4.9%

In terms of the absolute figures, South and East Asia will continue to have by far the highest number of fixed broadband subscribers by the end of 2030, at 736 million. China will remain the largest market in the region, although the growth there will slow down significantly, given already high household penetration.


Western Europe will follow in the remote second place with 180 million fixed broadband subscribers forecast by 2030. Despite the highest predicted growth, Middle East and Africa will remain the smallest fixed broadband market with 95 million subscribers. However, this figure is only slightly lower than that forecast for Eastern Europe (101m), not least due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war.


Compared to the previous forecast, our current forecast of global fixed broadband take-up figures by end-2030 is 1.5% higher. This reflects higher than we previously expected growth in broadband take-up and addressable audiences in a number of countries. The higher forecast growth in such large markets as India (+26%), Morocco (+21%), and Malaysia (+20%), among others, has boosted our global fixed broadband subscriber forecast for this decade. These are developing economies with low market saturation, where there is still plenty of scope for expanding fixed broadband coverage and take-up. Markets of these types also dominate the highest growth league table (Table 3).


Table 3. Fixed broadband markets with the highest forecast growth, 2023-2030. Source: Point Topic.

Country

Type

Predicted growth, 2023-2030

Population penetration, Q2 202[3]

Kenya

Youthful Countries

244.42%

2.2%

Botswana

Youthful Countries

137.78%

5.5%

Philippines

Emerging Countries

116.08%

5.2%

Guatemala

Emerging Countries

109.91%

4.0%

Pakistan

Emerging Countries

103.83%

1.0%

South Africa

Emerging Countries

100.40%

3.1%

Nicaragua

Emerging Countries

85.07%

5.1%

Indonesia

Emerging Countries

76.81%

4.4%

Jordan

Youthful Countries

73.87%

7.1%

Senegal

Youthful Countries

73.26%

1.5%

At the same time, we predict a slight decline in fixed broadband subscribers in China by the end of the decade (-3.9%), given that the country’s fixed broadband market is already highly saturated. Moreover, 5G subscribers there are also approaching 1.5 billion (see the caveat in footnote 2). Finland, another country with high fixed broadband penetration and high 5G availability, will also see negative growth (Table 4).


Overall, the lowest forecast growth countries are a mixture of Mature, Emerging and Youthful markets with a common feature – relatively high fixed broadband penetration.


Table 4. Fixed broadband markets with the lowest forecast growth, 2023-2030. Source: Point Topic.

Country

Type

Predicted growth, 2023-2030

Population penetration, Q2 2023

China

Youthful Countries

-3.92%

43.1%

Finland

Mature Countries

-2.22%

35.0%

France

Mature Countries

0.02%

49.6%

Slovenia

Emerging Countries

0.04%

33.7%

Lithuania

Emerging Countries

1.13%

29.5%

Romania

Youthful Countries

1.22%

32.8%

Greece

Youthful Countries

1.39%

43.5%

Estonia

Emerging Countries

1.81%

41.5%

Cyprus

Emerging Countries

1.94%

28.0%

United Kingdom

Mature Countries

1.97%

42.5%

The overall trend is that developing economies will see higher growth in fixed broadband take-up between now and the end of the decade.


Similarly, mainly countries from the Global South will see the largest improvements in fixed broadband penetration among population, with UAE at the top with +16%.



The complete dataset of the fixed broadband take-up forecast to 2030 by country and region is available to subscribers of our Global Broadband Statistics.

 

[1] We have divided countries into "Emerging", "Youthful" and "Mature" markets, depending on the amount of time since the technology was introduced. The list is available in the full dataset spreadsheet.

[2] Given recent news about China possibly over-reporting their population figures, we cannot vouch for the country’s officially reported fixed broadband subscriber figures used in our forecast.

[3] We used the United Nations population figures (https://population.un.org/)

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