Quarterly updates of forecast and take-up models

The most recent runs (using March, take-up; June, coverage 2025 data) of our postcode take-up model and forecasts for operator coverage have now been released.

Updates include new inputs for subscribers and technology adoption trends and tracking consolidation of networks. 

Take-up

Adoption and the rate of take-up for FTTP in particular continues to be a big story in the UK. Slower than many had hoped and projected the market is making do with the bandwidth available and needs persuading to shift to something ‘better’.

Better is a loaded term in this instance.  Certainly FTTP offers better stability than copper based offerings but is that enough?  The ISPs are so accustomed to marketing and selling based on ‘speed’ they miss out on a significant sector of the market that have enough speed for their use and don’t see significant downsides to their existing contracts and costs.

The flattening of the data consumption curves in recent quarters and now years means that take-up will become a more direct competition on price and content as well as customer service.  All expensive ways to gain and keep a subscriber, compared to offering more speed than a competitor anyway.

Our models reflect this new reality, based on our longitudinal data and indicators from the market.  This release allows our customers to easily access another view to augment their own understanding of the adoption landscape.

Published at postcode level the data can be aggregated by (larger) ISP and technology and any geography which offers the flexibility to meld with any internal structures and models.

It is important to remember that this is a model.  Data is distributed down from national and footprint level subscriber numbers.

We’ve published some outputs for free.  Here you can see the Ashford in Kent split by LA ward (councillors take note) but you can find any local authority and postcode in our data.

Coverage Forecasts by operator and technology

We produce two sets of forecasts at postcode level for availability.  One which lists operators broken out individually and one which compounds the count of FTTP and gigabit supply in a postcode.

These allow the user to quickly arrive at a view of the future based on transparent and relatively simple models.  We don’t attempt to over-fit and force data into the shapes that we like. 

While our roll-back testing is improving, we hit 80% for some operators, we rely on simple regressions and competitive push and pull models to arrive at a clear outcome.  We expect our customers to have their own views as well as access to data, particularly if they are an operator themselves, that we don’t have.

Again we have made the most recent outputs free for you see:

To see more of our fixed broadband data at Local Authority level you can view our data windows with outputs from digital deprivation, to revenue generation and more.  Our subscribers get access to timelines, data downloads and more insights but we have made some recent outputs publicly available just click on the area you want to know about.

For free access email isabelle.anderson@point-topic.com.